Category: A Victory!
A gunpowder shortage is here, but it hasn’t affected the supply of popular ammo like 9mm and 5.56 NATO, yet. There is still plenty of popular ammo on dealers’ shelves both in brick-and-mortar retail stores and online. But the gunpowder shortage is here and coming at us like a slow-moving hurricane. We know it is coming, just not sure when it will hit.
The problem when covering news like a gunpowder shortage is that it is almost a self-fulfilling prophecy causing a run on ammo supplies. I tend to be skeptical and not cynical, but I am suspicious. I have no crystal ball, but I do know people in the ammunition making and selling industries. Is it a grand marketing scheme to sell ammo? Or is it real? From those I’ve spoken to, the shortage is real, but it is not all gloom and doom. Some call it a typical manufacturing cycle. Others call it economics 101 and a simple case of supply and demand. There are other added factors, too, like a war in Europe and conflict in the Middle East, that play into the shortage.
It’s called the FUD factor: Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. We have had a lot of fear, uncertainty and doubt in past years. Good reasons to buy ammo. Lots of ammo. The mere hint of a lack of supply causes a run on products. It’s a vicious circle.
What Caused Past Ammo Shortages?
The first ammo shortage coincided with Obama’s second term. When Democrats in office turn up the gun control rhetoric, that causes consumers—you and me—to buy guns and ammo for fear of not being able to get either. Legislation can be a significant factor in most ammo shortages.
The most recent ammo shortage, however, was a combination of a pandemic and national instability, causing a near perfect storm. Covid hit us with a sucker punch in 2020, and we didn’t know what was going to happen. Not that buying ammo would treat Covid, but there was that uncertainty over the supply of all goods. Remember people hoarding toilet paper? Ammo was on that list of supplies, maybe below masks and hand sanitizer, but it was on the list.
The national instability came with the fallout from George Floyd’s death while being taken into police custody in 2020. Call them protests or riots, people were in fear. Respect for law and order had evaporated throughout the country. Cancel culture became the mantra of mobs on the street as statues were pulled down in attempts to rewrite history. Law enforcement was at times helpless to stop the rampage or as was most often the case, hand-tied by left leaning public officials who were either afraid to raise the ire of the mobs or in some instances, saw a political opportunity in allowing rioters to run amuck under the guise of “peaceful protests.” Businesses were destroyed, and we vividly remember home owners standing their ground in their front yard brandishing AR-15s and handguns. We all wondered if the mob was going to come to our neighborhood next. Ammo flew of the shelves as gun purchases also skyrocketed. Safety and self-rescue were our only options during that period. The social contract had been broken.
The New Ammo Shortage
The cause of this new ammo shortage is different. Global instability with wars in the Middle East and Ukraine is draining the market of gunpowder. Artillery shells use copious amounts of gunpowder—not the exact kind in your 308 Winchester cartridge—but it all comes from nitrocellulose, the key material in producing gunpowder and other munitions propellants. Nitrocellulose is not just used in producing gunpowder, but is also used to manufacture paints, ink and other finishes. Nitrocellulose is an agricultural product with Thailand, China and India the largest producers. The U.S. is a major importer. According to the Washington Times, members of Congress approached the Biden administration on getting ahead of the shortage back in April of this year. The intent of the Ammunition Supply Chain Act was to require the Biden administration to submit a report to Congress about the current state of the domestic supply of necessary components for smokeless gunpowder. No such report, however, has been provided by the Biden administration.
Players In The Ammo Space
The only domestic gunpowder manufacturer is St. Marks in Florida, a division of General Dynamics. St. Marks produces a broad spectrum of ball powder propellants for rimfire and magnum rifle cartridges to 20mm munitions and pistol cartridges.
“With the Ukraine-Russia war and the fighting around Israel, gunpowder production has shifted to military needs,” says Peter Foss, CEO of Shell Tech ammunition. “We secured powder for our production knowing the shortage was on the horizon.” Shell Tech is a nimble ammunition manufacturer that produces high-quality ammo loaded in a two-piece proprietary shell case designed to outperform brass and nickel-plated brass for the same price as brass. Small manufactures can be fast to react while the big players—Remington, Hornady, Federal, Winchester, Fiocchi, and others—are large corporations that cannot easily turn on a dime. There is a board of directors they report to.
I contacted numerous large ammo manufacturers for comment, but all I got was crickets. I get it. It does them no good to comment. At best. large ammunition manufactures can run a third shift, but they can’t stockpile powder since security and storage space costs is not in the budget. The big ammo players have also seen this cycle of supply and demand before and by the time they gear up the supply will be back to normal. This doesn’t mean the big players have not prepared. They have produced plenty of popular ammo like 9mm, 5.56 NATO, .308 Winchester, .30-30 and the like. It’s the less popular calibers like .44-40 Winchester, 6.5 Swede and others that become hard to find.
You may have already seen the impact of a coming gunpowder shortage.
“Some magnum rifle calibers are being loaded with different powders,” says Steve Fox COO of Shell Tech. “You may notice that your magnum rifle caliber doesn’t have the velocity it should. That’s because the powder for those calibers is not available and an alternative powder is being used.” Foss and Fox also mention that brass is available but large primers—another product imported from oversea into the U.S.—have become harder to find.
An Ammo Retailer’s Perspective
Dan Wolgin, CEO of Ammunition Depot, has weathered the ammo shortage before. He did a quick back of the envelope calculation using the amount of munitions going to help Ukraine and Israel and quickly determined about 27 million pounds—give or take—was being diverted. That amount of powder equates to about 40 billion 9mm rounds.
“During COVID, 9mm was more impacted than any other caliber,” Wolgin says. “With the military need, 5.56 NATO sees an impact.” Regardless of the factors, .22 LR goes first, typically because it cost less and is perhaps viewed more in this situation as a survival round. Wolgin believes in being nimble so he has stockpiled ammo and other supplies, so he can provide both availability and good prices. Understand it costs money to hold and store inventory and some retailers just can’t manage the numbers.
“It really comes down to supply and demand,” says Wolgin, “and having good relationships with suppliers and customers.” The demand for gunpowder has risen and there is only so much supply.
At the present there is plenty of ammo available at good prices. A quick online search found 9mm rounds going from $.21 to $.24 per round; 5.56 NATO is $.50 to $.62 per round depending on the quantity being purchased.
2024 Gunpowder Shortage: What To Do
Today, less than a month prior to the 2024 election there are rumors that another ammunition shortage is pending due to the shortage of gunpowder. Get ahead of the curve and buy when prices are low so your guns aren’t running on fumes. Or you can wait and cry about the higher prices. Either way, the storm is coming. This is your chance to be prepared.
Albany, NY (WRGB) — A recently passed New York state law that bars licensed firearms owners to carry concealed on all private property is unconstitutional, according to a federal judge.
The ruling down Thursday in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of New York follows a decision in December by the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.
The law makes it a felony for a concealed-carry license holder to carry their firearm on all private property — unless the property owner expressly allows it. District Court Judge John Sinatra Jr. writes that the state can’t enforce this rule on private property that is open to the public.
Regulation in this area is permissible only if the government demonstrates that the new enactment is consistent with the Nation’s historical tradition of sufficiently analogous regulations. New York fails that test here. Indeed, property owners have the right to exclude. But the state may not unilaterally exercise that right and, thereby, interfere with the long-established Second Amendment rights of law-abiding citizens who seek to carry for self-defense on private property open to the public.
New York state cannot enforce this part of the law, which also includes a ban on concealed-carry in “sensitive places,” such as government property, religious institutions, healthcare facilities, parks, libraries, places serving alcohol, and others. The Court of Appeals in December upheld the sensitive locations clause but deferred other provisions back to lower courts.
“My office will continue to defend New York’s gun laws and use every tool to protect New Yorkers from senseless gun violence,” Attorney General Letitia James said in December.
Rep. Elise Stefanik applauded Thursday’s ruling.
Despite Kathy Hochul and radical New York Democrats repeated attempts to target law-abiding New York gun owners, today’s ruling from the Western District of New York delivers a win for New Yorkers’ Second Amendment rights, striking down Kathy Hochul’s unconstitutional overreach by simply applying recent common sense rulings of the United States Supreme Court. When it comes to the Second Amendment, Kathy Hochul and New York Democrats refuse to follow the Constitution. I applaud today’s ruling and will always fight for the Second Amendment rights of law-abiding New Yorkers.
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down a century-old rule in a 2022 ruling, making it easier for New York gun owners to apply for and obtain a concealed carry license. Since 1913, New York state law required anyone seeking a concealed-carry license to show “proper cause,” or justification, to carry.
Gov. Kathy Hochul called state lawmakers back to Albany days after the ruling and within a month of the legislative session ending, to strengthen existing gun laws in response to the Supreme Court ruling.
What do Saturday Night Specials, side by side shotguns, and Mosin Nagant M1891 rifles all have in common?
If you have a moment to read, here is an interesting tale; these were all manufactured by the Meriden Firearms Company, of Meriden, Connecticut. In a brief but meteoric lifespan that lasted a mere dozen years, the Meriden Firearms company turned out an impressive array of inexpensive, but serviceable, and, in some cases, now, even collectible firearms.
The Meriden Fire Arms Co. was a subsidiary of Sears, Roebuck & Co., actually manufacturing guns for sale exclusively by the parent company. They also imported guns from Germany and Belgium under their name. Meriden Arms Co. was formed after Sears bought the Andrew Fryberg Arms Co. (Fryberg was closely linked to Iver Johnson, long-time manufacturers of pocket pistols.) Meriden plied their trade, turning out .32 and .38 cal. revolvers with various trade names on them.
Selling for a whopping $3.10, or $4.25 fully engraved (!) these were utilitarian, but hardly heirloom quality pistols. Unless, perhaps, you were willing to spring the extra $1.25 for “Finely fitted pearl grips.” Clearly occupying the workman end of the economic scale, Meriden also turned out serviceable shotguns and .22 rifles of various types.
Then came the War To End All Wars. With Russia hard pressed by the First World War, but desperately needing weapons, and her allies stretched too thin to offer much in the way of assistance, the beleaguered Russian government turned to the British. They, also hard-pressed, turned to American industrial capability, for assistance in meeting their manufacturing needs. With British agents acting as shadowy intermediaries, a deal was struck for three quarter of a million US made Mosin Nagant M1891 Three Line rifles.
Their share of this order far eclipsed Meriden firearms company’s production abilities. Apparently, manufacturing $4.00 revolvers was an order of magnitude less challenging than making a half million battle rifles, and in 1916, they were subsumed under the New England Westinghouse name.
Before all of the rifles could be delivered to Russia, that government fell, and the new Bolshevik government defaulted on the contracts with the United States manufacturers.
This meant that Remington and Westinghouse were left with several hundred thousand rifles in their unsold inventory.
To spare the companies from bankruptcy, the United States government then bought all of the remaining stocks of rifles. Some of the remaining rifles had already been shipped all the way to Great Britain and those were used to arm the US and British expeditionary forces that were sent to Russia in 1918 and 1919. Some of these must have had fascinating histories, as rifles from this issuance occasionally show up with arsenal marks of multiple nations stamped on them, from numerous battles and wars, won and lost.
The rifles that remained in the US were used for training in the Army and also used to arm some National Guard, and ROTC units.
Commanding well in excess of $700.00, today one of these American manufactured rifles can be considered among the elite of the Mosin Nagant line.
Meriden Fire Arms continued to produce some firearms in another facility on Center Street in Meriden until 1918 when Sears announced that the Meriden Fire Arms Company would discontinue the manufacture of sporting guns.
From the verdant forests of New England, to dry goods stores across America, to the snows of Siberia, Meriden Firearms carved a unique niche in the history of American arms.
Michigan and Hawaii, both Democrat-led states, have launched taxpayer-funded tip lines for individuals looking to report perceived firearms violations anonymously. While these dumpster fire states claim the lines are aimed at lawbreakers, Second Amendment groups are reasonably skeptical, as they should be, because such a system can easily be abused. Let’s face it, we know that the weaponization of this service against law-abiding gun owners is exactly what they are intended for.
On Thursday, October 10, Hawaii’s Democrat Governor Josh Green announced the state’s Department of Law Enforcement had established a confidential “Gun Tip Line for people to make anonymous reports of illegal gun ownership and gun crimes,” where tipsters can either call, text or drop a dime via the DLE’s website or a downloadable app where they can submit photographs and videos to back up their report.
The governor’s office went even further during the brown shirt recruiting exercise saying, “People reporting tips are encouraged to leave detailed information including the names of those in possession of illegal guns or committing gun crimes, a location where those people may be found and a description of the guns.” Sure, what could go wrong when hiring unpaid, untrained, overzealous, anti-Second Amendment sycophants typically knowing very little about firearms to play the role of a detective, spying on and recording their neighbors?
Meanwhile, Gretchen “Lockdown” Whitmer, known for hosting the most oppressive COVID lockdowns in America while still having more deaths per capita than any neighboring Midwestern states, signed House Bill 5503, a measure passed off as an education funding bill that allocates $1 million in School Aid Funding to support an anonymous tip line for students to report firearms thought to be “improperly stored.”
The bill goes on to mandate that Michigan’s Department of Education develop materials concerning improper storage of firearms, including tip line usage, and distribute those materials to school districts across the state. The Gestapo may not pay you for your work, but you will receive free training, whether you want it or not.
As the NRA-ILA points out, language regarding the tip line was added to the bill as an amendment that was then swiftly passed by the Democrat-controlled legislature.
“The expedited pace and the silencing of opposition when the bill came up for a floor vote underscores the reality that this was a political move and another attack on gun owners,” says the NRA.
These tiplines will ultimately create a situation that will lead to wasted resources, unwarranted confrontations with law enforcement and what could amount to unconstitutional searches of homes, businesses and other private property based on vendettas and other nefarious agendas. Not only does this negatively impact the community’s relationship with authorities, but those who abuse the tip lines will undoubtedly drive wedges within communities as well, drawing lines at a time when we need to be working together to strengthen and solidify those connections.
Back in early 2000’s, McCann Industries (known for their M1 Garand Gas Trap Adjuster) manufactured an M1 Garand in .458 Winchester Magnum. Not made anymore after the passing of McCann’s primary gunsmith, the rifles are a fine example of ingenuity and practicality applied to big-game hunting.
At first, I flinched just thinking about it, but the few videos of it shooting shed some light on how this big-game cartridge is tamed. While the base rifle was identical, McCann added an aggressive muzzle brake and a mercury cylinder to the stock to absorb and deflect the recoil.
Nathan S
One of TFB’s resident Jarheads, Nathan now works within the firearms industry. A consecutive Marine rifle and pistol expert, he enjoys local 3-gun, NFA, gunsmithing, MSR’s, & high-speed gear. Nathan has traveled to over 30 countries working with US DoD & foreign MoDs.
